Market Update
The US and Iran signed an initial deal at Versailles on 17 June, and the conflict premium has kept unwinding. Brent oil has fallen to around $73 a barrel, well below its wartime peak, and wholesale gas eased with it. But Trump has threatened a Strait of Hormuz transit toll once the 60-day window closes, and Iran claims the same right, so the easing is real but reversible.
Qatar is moving LNG tankers back through the Strait, but its damaged Ras Laffan plant is years from repair and Asian buyers still pull Atlantic cargoes east. European gas storage is entering summer below its five-year average. A clean return to pre-conflict pricing is not on offer.
The bigger swing was at home. This week's heatwave broke the UK's June temperature record two days running, reaching a provisional 36.4°C, and the grid operator (NESO) issued, then withdrew, a summer margin notice. For pubs, outdoor trade lifts but fridges, cellars and beer lines run flat out, and power costs feel demand pressure just as gas eases.
Business Energy Costs
On the bill, gas eases first. Gas commodity cost is now about 0.8p per kWh above the late-February pre-conflict level, down from roughly 1.5p a fortnight ago, but the unit rates suppliers quote have not caught up, so the saving is in the pipeline rather than on the bill yet. Wholesale power eased with gas, but electricity is a separate story: network charges keep climbing, with transmission alone up around two-thirds from April under RIIO-ET3, and this week's margin notice showed how fast demand can tighten the system.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 28/05/2026 | 10.2p | 26.8p | £1.61 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10.3p | 27.6p | £1.30 | |
| 25/06/2026 | 9.0p | 27.1p | £1.42 | |
| Gas | 28/05/2026 | 4.0p | 6.6p | £0.88 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4.0p | 6.8p | £0.91 | |
| 25/06/2026 | 3.3p | 6.8p | £0.85 |
If your renewal lands in the next three months, fresh quotes this fortnight beat waiting. Today's offers are keener, but the 60-day toll window could pull rates back up before autumn. Six to twelve months out, you can watch, but plan on rates above last year's. Either way, check the standing charge as closely as the unit rate; for multi-site operators it repeats at every premises.
Supplier Challenges
Change of tenancy delays remain the most common supplier issue we see, and a slow changeover leaves a pub on expensive deemed rates from day one. Ofgem's 23 June consultation proposes judging suppliers on outcomes instead of tick-box rules, which is welcome but won't help current contracts. Taking on a new pub? Have the lease, ID, opening reads and responsibility dates ready. If a changeover or renewal is coming up, talk to us early; sorting it before a supplier slows it down is exactly what we do.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Contact Us Today
Tel: 02476 328995 Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk https://nationwide-energy.co.uk/free-guides-to-help-your-business/
Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 25/06/2026.