Market Update
Last month we called the easing real but reversible. It has reversed, and the pattern is familiar: attack, retaliation, prices up. Iran declared the peace deal void on 15 July and the Strait of Hormuz closed; Houthi fighters have since hit two Saudi tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea workaround. That leaves both exits for Gulf oil and gas under threat at once, and it is why this rise has held.
Wholesale gas is at its highest since the conflict began in March, and power has moved with it. European gas storage was 54% full on 20 July, ten points behind this time last year, and refill has slowed because nobody wants to fill tanks at war prices. Go into a cold winter on that buffer and supply itself, not just price, becomes the question; that is why winter contracts already cost as much as today's gas.
At home, Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 21 July. VAT on household electricity drops to zero from October; most pub contracts will not see it. Better news: a 20% business-rates cut for pubs from April 2027, worth around £1,100 each. The July heatwave has passed.
Business Energy Costs
The wholesale cost of gas has risen by more than half in four weeks and now sits at more than double its late-February pre-conflict level, about 2.6p per kWh higher. Electricity is up about 5.7p on the same baseline. The October cap forecast rose about 2% even after the VAT cut; wholesale swallowed the saving.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 11/06/2026 | 10.3p | 27.6p | £1.30 |
| 25/06/2026 | 9.0p | 27.1p | £1.42 | |
| 22/07/2026 | 12.6p | 27.2p | £1.28 | |
| Gas | 11/06/2026 | 4.0p | 6.8p | £0.91 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3.3p | 6.8p | £0.85 | |
| 22/07/2026 | 5.1p | 6.7p | £0.80 |
Supplier pricing is catching up but not caught up. This week's quotes sit only a few percent above early July's, a fraction of the wholesale jump. If your renewal lands inside three months, move before the rest of that gap reaches offers; a long fix locks in the war premium, a shorter one keeps options open. Six to twelve months out, don't fix at a spike. This market has flipped twice in six weeks; we can watch it and flag when to move. For groups, staggered end dates mean one site is always renewing into a spike; we align them and manage the whole portfolio so timing is our problem, not yours. This is our current view, not a certainty.
Not every saving depends on the market, either. Larger sites pay a daily charge on their agreed supply capacity (kVA) whether they use it or not, and many are set well above what the site actually draws. We can check yours and apply to reduce it, and that saving holds whatever wholesale prices do next.
Supplier Challenges
Ofgem is moving to regulate brokers. Its review of the third-party intermediary (TPI) market closed on 16 July, part of the direct regulation government confirmed last autumn to tackle hidden commissions and mis-selling. We welcome it: honest brokers have nothing to hide. Change of tenancy delays remain the issue we see most, and a slow changeover onto deemed rates now costs far more than a month ago. Talk to us early; clearing paperwork before a supplier slows it down is what we do.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Contact Us Today
Tel: 02476 328995 Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk https://nationwide-energy.co.uk/free-guides-to-help-your-business/
Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 22/07/2026.