Market Update
Early August brought hope of the Strait of Hormuz reopening after Iran and Oman agreed a route. Talks stalled mid-August and two more ships were attacked; just six vessels passed on Tuesday against a ten-day average of eleven. The ceasefire has broken down and Washington widened its economic pressure this week, so wholesale gas and power climbed again. Even with a quick deal, the UAE's national oil company expects no full flows before mid-2027.
European Union gas storage has just passed 60% full, the lowest for mid-August in five years, and analysts doubt it reaches even the reduced 80% winter target. Qatari gas is still missing and refilling is expensive. Last fortnight we said a cheaper renewal needed shipping, storage and weather all improving; storage is furthest behind, so we would not bank on a cheaper autumn.
The Met Office expects changeable late-August weather, but short hot spells remain possible in the south, with fridges and cellar cooling working harder just as electricity costs more than a month ago.
Business Energy Costs
Gas remains the more exposed side, reacting first to Hormuz headlines. Gas commodity cost is about 3.0p per kWh above its late-February pre-conflict level, electricity about 5.8p, both wider than a fortnight ago. Electricity gets some shelter because less gas is burned for power, but Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges jumped in April and are forecast to rise about a quarter more next April, so expect standing charges to matter as much as unit rates.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 22/07/2026 | 12.6p | 27.2p | £1.28 |
| 06/08/2026 | 11.3p | 28.4p | £1.21 | |
| 20/08/2026 | 12.7p | 27.9p | £1.23 | |
| Gas | 22/07/2026 | 5.1p | 6.7p | £0.80 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4.6p | 7.1p | £0.79 | |
| 20/08/2026 | 5.5p | 7.2p | £0.80 |
Quoted rates have not caught up with this week's wholesale move. If your renewal lands inside three months, get options now, before suppliers reprice. Eight to twelve months out, decide in advance what price or event will make you fix; a cold winter on thin storage could push prices higher, and a very strong El Niño, now declared, raises the odds of a cold end to winter. For pub groups and managed houses the standing charge is paid daily per site, so a low unit rate is not always a cheap contract.
Supplier Challenges
The quiet failure is the handover: a site trades before the supplier has the new occupier's details, evidence and a day-one reading, and the first bill lands on a rate nobody agreed. Monthly meter readings and a dated photo give every site evidence that settles most billing disputes before they start. Ofgem gives suppliers ten working days to review Change of Tenancy paperwork; chasing them is nobody's job in a busy pub. It is ours: we chase the paperwork and sort the switch so a licensee never starts on the wrong tariff.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Contact Us Today
Tel: 02476 328995 Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk https://nationwide-energy.co.uk/free-guides-to-help-your-business/
Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 19/08/2026.
This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business, and Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.