Market Update
A fortnight ago the risk was the Strait of Hormuz staying shut. This fortnight it reached the pipeline that gets round it. On 11 September drone strikes shut Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, which had been carrying Gulf oil to the Red Sea while the strait stayed closed. Repairs will take weeks. The Oman talks that might have reopened the strait were postponed with no new date. Oil hit its highest since July last week, and UK gas for October traded above 200p per therm this week against about 181p a fortnight ago. Our current view is that wholesale costs are more likely to rise than fall while neither route out of the Gulf is working properly. They cannot rise forever. Economies cannot run on energy at these prices for long, so a resolution has to come. When it does, we would expect prices to drop sharply at first, before any extra cargo has even moved. Refilling Europe's stores will take longer, so after that first drop we expect a slow drift lower rather than a straight return to where we started.
Keeping an eye on storage, Europe's stores were about 68% full on 14 September, a record low for the time of year and short of the 80% winter target. The reason is simple: Qatar's gas reaches Europe through the Strait of Hormuz, and with the strait closed since the war began those cargoes stopped, so the summer refill never caught up. Norwegian maintenance and an unplanned outage at Troll have cut flows to Britain on top. What this means for a pub is that the buffer against a cold winter is thin. Prices are below their peak because few buyers are chasing spare cargoes at these levels. If it turns cold, there is little in store to stop this winter's contract prices rising again.
Weather is not the problem this fortnight. The Met Office expects a fresh week, then drier and warmer into late September, with no early cold signal. That eases demand. It does not fill Britain's stores, which hold about a week of winter demand, and it does little for Europe's.
Business Energy Costs
Wholesale gas for October is now 6.9p per kWh, against 2.5p in late February. Electricity is 15.5p against 6.9p. Gas has nearly trebled, electricity has more than doubled, and both gaps are wider than a fortnight ago. Quoted rates have moved much less. Suppliers buy their energy in advance, so a wholesale move feeds through gradually rather than all at once. That cuts both ways. When wholesale falls, unit rates will not fall as far or as fast, because network, policy and metering charges are built into the rate and are still rising. Electricity's standing charge eased back this fortnight while gas's rose, so compare the daily charge per site as well as the unit rate.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 20/08/2026 | 12.7p | 27.9p | £1.23 |
| 03/09/2026 | 14.2p | 27.9p | £1.49 | |
| 17/09/2026 | 15.5p | 27.7p | £1.26 | |
| Gas | 20/08/2026 | 5.5p | 7.2p | £0.80 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6.2p | 7.4p | £0.68 | |
| 17/09/2026 | 6.9p | 7.6p | £0.80 |
Nobody knows how long quoted rates stay behind wholesale, so if your renewal is in sight it is worth seeing offers now, while that lag lasts. Further out, next summer's gas is priced about a third below this winter's. That is a forward price, not a forecast, and it moves with every headline from the Gulf. Renew at a price you can afford and plan around. We will lay out the options, but the decision is yours.
Supplier Challenges
The Government is introducing new rules from 1st September 2027 linking new fixed-term energy contracts at smaller business sites, including pubs, to smart or advanced metering. To take out a new fixed deal, your pub will need to have a suitable meter already installed or agree to have one fitted. You do not need the installation completed before signing, but if you decline to agree to it, a new fixed deal will no longer be available and the alternatives could be more expensive.
There are positive reasons to prepare now. Smart meters can mean more accurate bills, fewer manual readings and a clearer understanding of where your pub uses energy, helping you identify waste and keep costs under control.
There is also a fairness benefit. Unpaid energy bills create costs that suppliers can build into prices paid by other businesses, including those that consistently pay on time. Accurate billing, earlier support with payment difficulties and, where appropriate, smart prepayment can help prevent debts building up. Reducing these costs could help ease pressure on prices over time, although it does not guarantee lower bills.
If you run a pub group or tied estate, now is a good time to check which sites still have traditional meters. Nationwide can help you understand the changes and work with suppliers to arrange upgrades ahead of renewal, giving your operators time to prepare and keeping their contract options open.
Change of Tenancy delays have not gone away either. Until the transfer is done a new licensee is on deemed rates, usually well above any contract rate, so keep the dated lease, the day-one meter reading and the supplier emails together, and bring a stalled transfer to us early.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Contact Us Today
Tel: 02476 328995 Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk https://nationwide-energy.co.uk/free-guides-to-help-your-business/
Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 16/09/2026.
This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business, and Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.