Market Update
A fortnight ago we said wholesale costs were more likely to rise while neither route out of the Gulf was working. That now looks too gloomy. Oil tankers are getting through the Strait of Hormuz again, Saudi Arabia has restarted its bypass pipeline, and Gulf oil exports in September were the highest since the war began. UK wholesale gas fell about 10% over the fortnight and electricity about 8%.
Europe went into October with its gas stores 71.5% full, the lowest for the time of year in 15 years. Gas tankers are getting through too, but S&P Global says October could recover to only about a quarter of pre-war shipments if the late-September pace holds. A cold snap would push prices back up quickly.
Washington could still reverse the recent falls: President Trump is weighing fresh strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November, the Wall Street Journal reports. For now, the Met Office expects near or slightly above average temperatures through October, which keeps heating demand down.
Business Energy Costs
Wholesale gas for November is 6.3p per kWh, against 2.5p before the war on 26 February, and electricity is 15.3p against 6.9p. Signed rates rose anyway, the lag we warned about last time. Electricity rose from 27.7p to 28.5p and gas from 7.6p to 8.0p, partly as September's wholesale rise reached suppliers' price lists. Each average also depends on which contracts we signed, so one fortnight is not a trend.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 03/09/2026 | 14.2p | 27.9p | £1.49 |
| 17/09/2026 | 15.5p | 27.7p | £1.26 | |
| 01/10/2026 | 15.3p | 28.5p | £1.18 | |
| Gas | 03/09/2026 | 6.2p | 7.4p | £0.68 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6.9p | 7.6p | £0.80 | |
| 01/10/2026 | 6.3p | 8.0p | £0.87 |
If your renewal is inside three months, get prices now and compare the full annual cost, including the standing charge at every site. Six to twelve months out, we think you can wait, but settle with us now the price you would lock in at, and act sooner if the US resumes strikes on Iran. Gas prices for next summer fell only about 2%, because Europe must buy heavily then to refill its stores. Even if the strait fully reopens, budget for 2027 prices well above pre-war levels.
Supplier Challenges
Electricity meters have started moving to half-hourly settlement, an 18-month industry switch that charges suppliers for when their customers use power as well as how much. A pub's trade picks up in the early-evening peak, when power costs most, so we expect more quotes priced by time of day. Send us any bill that looks wrong while your meters move over.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
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Tel: 02476 328995 Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk https://nationwide-energy.co.uk/free-guides-to-help-your-business/
Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 30/09/2026.
This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business, and Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.