Market Update
A fortnight ago we warned that Washington could reverse the recent fall in prices. Iran has done it instead. Iranian officials told Reuters they have changed tactics to hit ships in and beyond the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to keep oil prices high until the US midterm elections on 3 November, and Yemen's Houthis have struck Riyadh airport and Saudi Aramco's headquarters. President Trump has ruled out new strikes before the vote, which leaves Iran a free hand until then, so expect sharp swings.
Gas is where that bites hardest. Europe's stores reached about 74% on 12 October, nine points below this time last year, and attacks in Qatari waters threaten the partial recovery in Gulf gas shipments, so any cold spell would hit prices fast.
The Met Office expects high pressure from this weekend, bringing dry days and colder nights. Calm weather usually means less wind power, so more gas is burned for electricity just as heating starts to come on.
Business Energy Costs
Wholesale gas for November is 7.2p per kWh, up about 13% in a fortnight and against 2.5p before the war on 26 February. Electricity is 16.9p, up about 10%, against 6.9p, and both are above mid-September levels. Rates on contracts we signed rose again: electricity from 28.5p to 29.1p and gas from 8.0p to 8.2p. Standing charges now cover every site we sign, large and small, and earlier rows are updated to match.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 17/09/2026 | 15.5p | 27.7p | £3.51 |
| 01/10/2026 | 15.3p | 28.5p | £2.64 | |
| 14/10/2026 | 16.9p | 29.1p | £3.20 | |
| Gas | 17/09/2026 | 6.9p | 7.6p | £1.64 |
| 01/10/2026 | 6.3p | 8.0p | £1.08 | |
| 14/10/2026 | 7.2p | 8.2p | £0.94 |
If your renewal is inside three months, fix now; we doubt a dip comes before the vote. A fortnight ago we said six to twelve months out could wait. That now carries more risk, because the attacks have lifted next summer's gas by about 15%, when Europe must refill its stores with less Russian gas, so agree with us now the price you would fix at. Whatever wholesale does, budget for higher network costs from April: the grid operator, NESO, has proposed raising the charge for balancing the grid by about half.
Supplier Challenges
A bill-checking firm told Ofgem and the government this month that suppliers still base more than a quarter of business bills on estimated readings. It wants the back-billing cap extended to every business. Ofgem has also yet to rule on how suppliers charge deemed rates, which an incoming licensee pays until their contract is in place. If you are taking over a pub, or a bill looks like a guess, send it to us before you pay it.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
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Tel: 02476 328995 Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk https://nationwide-energy.co.uk/free-guides-to-help-your-business/
This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business, and Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.