Energy Update — 29th May 2026

Market Update

On 28th May, US forces struck an Iranian launch site at Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of global oil and gas flows; Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated against a US base in Kuwait. UK gas prices reacted sharply, up around 5–6% in a day. Current view: gas is unlikely to fall cleanly while strike risk is live, because suppliers are pricing the renewed escalation in.

European gas storage sits at around 38%, with refill harder and more expensive than usual. Equinor has warned that stocks could turn critical if Hormuz stays shut for months and that Europe is unlikely to reach its 80% pre-winter target. Treat any autumn softening as possible, not promised.

UK May has flipped from cold to record heat. The Met Office provisionally confirmed two consecutive May temperature records this week, with 35.1°C at Kew Gardens on 26th May. Smaller risk than a blocked shipping route, but hotter trading days mean more refrigeration and cooling load across pubs and managed houses.

Business Energy Costs

Ofgem confirmed on 27th May that the domestic cap will rise 13% from July, gas +24% and electricity +5%; business bills follow the same direction. Our table now puts Electricity Commodity Cost at 10.2p per kWh, about 3.3p above the late-February pre-conflict baseline, and Gas at 4.0p, about 1.5p above. The split is structural: electricity carries network and policy costs that do not ease when wholesale gas does.

	Date	Commodity Cost	Av Unit Rate	Av Standing Charge
Electricity	30/04/2026	9.5p	25.8p	£3.59
	14/05/2026	9.8p	27.3p	£1.34
	28/05/2026	10.2p	26.8p	£1.61
Gas	30/04/2026	3.9p	6.8p	£1.37
	14/05/2026	3.9p	6.8p	£1.71
	28/05/2026	4.0p	6.6p	£0.88

If your pub's renewal lands in the next three months, get fresh prices this fortnight and check the standing charge as closely as the unit rate. If you are 6–12 months out, waiting can still make sense, but watch storage refill and avoid deemed-rate exposure during a change of tenancy.

Supplier Challenges

Change of tenancy delays remain the most common supplier issue we see, with suppliers asking for solicitors' letters and extra paperwork to slow the process down. If you are taking on a pub, have every document ready and double-checked before you start: lease, ID, opening reads and responsibility dates. At renewal, check your bill for deemed-rate exposure, since that is where the avoidable cost usually sits. If a change of tenancy or renewal is coming up, get in touch and we will work through it with you.

Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 28/05/2026.