Energy Update — 12th June 2026

Market Update

Israel and Iran exchanged missiles last weekend for the first time since the April ceasefire, and oil jumped around 4% in a day. The exchange has since widened: Iran fired on US bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait midweek, after Washington blamed Iran for the downing of a US helicopter. Trump called off planned strikes yesterday, saying talks had reached Iran's top leadership, but Tehran has not confirmed and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Last fortnight's call that gas wouldn't fall while strike risk stayed live held.

European gas storage was about 42% full in early June, near the bottom of the five-year range, and refill is slow with Qatar's export plants years from repair, so every cargo is contested. That refill demand keeps a floor under gas prices all summer; the autumn dip some are waiting for isn't on offer yet.

The late-May heat record didn't last, but the Met Office's three-month outlook leans warmer than usual. For pubs the exposure is cooling not heating: fridges and cellars working harder on warm spells.

Business Energy Costs

July's rise was last fortnight's news; Cornwall Insight's first October forecast sits just above it, so the autumn signal points slightly higher again. Gas is carrying the conflict: at our 10 June sample, gas commodity cost was about 1.5p per kWh above the late-February pre-conflict level, electricity about 3.4p above. Electricity's rise is different in kind. Network and policy charges are a growing share of an electricity bill, so it won't follow gas down even if the Gulf settles. Treat the two contracts as separate decisions.

	Date	Commodity Cost	Av Unit Rate	Av Standing Charge
Electricity	14/05/2026	9.8p	27.3p	£1.34
	28/05/2026	10.2p	26.8p	£1.61
	10/06/2026	10.3p	27.6p	£1.30
Gas	14/05/2026	3.9p	6.8p	£1.71
	28/05/2026	4.0p	6.6p	£0.88
	10/06/2026	4.0p	6.8p	£0.91

If your renewal lands in the next three months, get fresh quotes this fortnight. Last weekend showed how fast offers can move. Six to twelve months out, waiting is reasonable, but plan on rates near today's rather than last year's. Either way, check the standing charge as closely as the unit rate. For multi-site operators it repeats at every premises.

Supplier Challenges

Change of tenancy delays are still the most common supplier issue we see, and a slow changeover leaves a pub on expensive deemed rates. If you are taking on a pub, have the lease, ID, opening reads and responsibility dates ready before day one. If a changeover or renewal is coming up, talk to us early — sorting it before a supplier slows it down is exactly what we do.

Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 10/06/2026.