Energy Update — 4th September 2026

Market Update

A fortnight ago we said storage was the reason not to bank on a cheaper autumn. Now shipping is worse too. Qatar extended its LNG delivery halt on 28 August; two days later the US struck launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a Saudi supertanker was hit leaving the strait, and this week the US and Iran traded their heaviest strikes since July. A handful of ships a day pass the strait, against about 125 before the war, and UK wholesale gas hit its highest since late 2023 before easing slightly.

Storage is the other problem: Europe's gas stores were about 65% full at the start of September, the lowest in five years, and analysts expect roughly 75% by late October, short of the 80% target. Norwegian maintenance has cut flows to the UK, and Britain stores only about a week of winter demand, so UK prices move first.

The summer heat has passed; the Met Office calls this El Niño unprecedented and expects a wetter, stormier autumn, which helps wind power but not gas storage, so the risks look weighted to the upside for now, though a settlement in the Gulf could change that quickly. Washington says no talks until Iran stops firing on ships, though its blockade is hurting Iran enough that talks may yet come.

Business Energy Costs

Wholesale gas is 3.7p per kWh above its late-February level and electricity 7.3p, both wider than a fortnight ago, yet quoted unit rates have barely moved.

	Date	Commodity Cost	Av Unit Rate	Av Standing Charge
Electricity	06/08/2026	11.3p	28.4p	£1.21
	20/08/2026	12.7p	27.9p	£1.23
	03/09/2026	14.2p	27.9p	£1.49
Gas	06/08/2026	4.6p	7.1p	£0.79
	20/08/2026	5.5p	7.2p	£0.80
	03/09/2026	6.2p	7.4p	£0.68

Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges rose about 64% this April and rise again next April. They sit in the daily standing charge per site, so a low unit rate can still be an expensive contract. On timing, we do not have a crystal ball, and the last fortnight shows how fast the picture changes. Quoted rates have not yet caught up with wholesale, so if your renewal is in sight it is worth seeing offers now. The market currently prices next summer's gas about a third below this winter's; that is a forward price, not a promise. A longer term averages that expectation into the price, a shorter one leaves you re-quoting in the middle of it, and neither suits every site. Renew when the price is one you can afford and plan around, and we will lay out the options whenever you want to look.

Supplier Challenges

Suppliers must review Change of Tenancy paperwork within ten working days, so incoming licensees should keep the dated lease, a day-one meter photo and every supplier email. Chasing a stalled transfer or wrong first bill is nobody's job in a busy pub; it is ours, so bring it to us early.

Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.

Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 03/09/2026.

This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business, and Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.